India’s economic growth slowed to 6.5 per cent during the July-September quarter because of a fading low-base effect. For the full year, we now expect the economy to grow at 7 per cent, with risks tilted to the downside. This implies that the second half of the year (October-March) will see growth slow down to 4.6 per cent, again largely due to the base effect and slowing global growth. This was the second consecutive quarter with no functional disruption of economic activity by the Covid-19 pandemic. Since October, Google, too, has stopped reporting mobility indicators, which had become one of the most tracked data points for analysts and policymakers since the pandemic struck. This suggests that Covid-19 is unlikely to come in the way of growth for most parts of the world, with China, which is following a zero-Covid policy, being the key exception. That’s the good news. Express View | New government data paints a mixed picture of the Indian economy The … [Read more...] about How can India make a soft landing amid global economic crash?
Industry body Assocham on Friday asked the Reserve Bank , which has hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May, to moderate the interest rate hikes so that it does not have adverse impact on nascent economic recovery. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member rate setting panel is scheduled to meet for three days from Monday to take a call on the next set of monetary policy. The central bank is scheduled to announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on December 7 (Wednesday). "At most the new rate hike should not exceed the 25-35 basis points band," Assocham said in a letter to the RBI Governor, along with highlighting other issues before the industry. One of the key recommendations advanced by the chamber to the RBI is to treat retail loans for purchase of Electric Vehicles as priority sector lending, with a concessional rate of interest. On September 30, the RBI had hiked the key policy rate (repo) by 50 … [Read more...] about Assocham asks RBI to moderate rate hikes
Synopsis There is a strong global appetite to invest in infrastructure, particularly renewable energy. Macquarie anticipates $2 trillion in global inflows over the next five years, given the thrust of several countries to drive significant climate policy initiatives. Even as it looks like the US Federal Reserve will take the slower path hereon to interest rate hikes, a recession in the world’s largest and second largest economies is imminent and is expected to remain through the first half of 2023. But the big disruptions of 2022 such as supply-side bottlenecks and inflation will stabilise. An improved economic landscape in the second half of 2023 is an expectation penned down by several economists. Expecting the same, Macquarie Asset Management believes investment themes across the following 4 major dimensions are likely to play out. • Alternatives must play an active role in portfolios. According to Macquarie, many individual investors under-allocate to private … [Read more...] about Infrastructure, green energy among themes to gain traction in 2023: Macquarie
Synopsis "I do not even try to predict FII flows into India let alone China so because I do not think that is a relevant metric to track ." In 2021 when that trend changed and after a very long time India moved through the outperforming end of global markets, I was quite clear that the trend would continue this year which it has so that clearly has happened, says Devina Mehra, Chairperson, MD & Founder, First Global Do tell us now where you see the strength in the Indian markets. Are you as bullish as some of the experts we have been speaking to? Actually I have been bullish for longer than these experts have been, from the beginning of the year actually and last year itself I had been saying that India will be an outperformer this year relative to global markets which you have seen has been quite dramatic. Not only the absolute movement, if you look at relative to all global equity markets, India has done very well. And the reason for that was that it had not … [Read more...] about Why Devina Mehra is bearish on fin tech companies
If you are invited to write an essay on the current economic situation in India, what would be your top two subjects? Most people would pick the people’s top concerns: unemployment and inflation. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) publishes a Monthly Economic Review. I did not think that a bunch of six young and enthusiastic economists, asked by the MoF to write such an essay for the Review, would consciously avoid the word unemployment as well as words such as malnutrition, hunger and poverty. (I wonder if it was whispered in their ears that the Prime Minister may read the article). The group of economists knows but will not admit that the omission of unemployment, malnutrition, hunger and poverty is a grave dereliction of scholarly duty. Also by P Chidambaram | Hijab: Point and Counter point Why a Review? The Monthly Economic Review is a valuable document. I expected that the 2022 September Review (released on October 22, 2022) would give an objective mid-year … [Read more...] about P Chidambaram writes: Head buried in the sand
Synopsis Goods trade will decline 0.2% next year, with contractions likely starting from the final months of this year, lead economist Adam Slater wrote Friday in a report. That's a substantial revision down from June, when Oxford forecast that the global goods trade would grow 3.4% in 2023. Global goods trade will shrink next year in a downturn reminiscent of previous recessions, Oxford Economics said, in a worrying forecast for Asia 's export-dependent economies and beyond. Goods trade will decline 0.2% next year, with contractions likely starting from the final months of this year, lead economist Adam Slater wrote Friday in a report. That's a substantial revision down from June, when Oxford forecast that the global goods trade would grow 3.4% in 2023. The forecast is among the worst trade outlooks yet for next year and coincides with a growing number of Asian nations reporting shrinking exports. South Korea said Thursday its exports fell the most in … [Read more...] about Global goods trade is likely to fall in 2023 amid rise in risks